Quartz, a global business news portal is quite erroneous in its analysis about India’s economy, which has, despite waves of Covid-19 pandemic, performed well, while job market is slowly by slowly coming back on track

Claim:

Quartz said the Modi government has faced severe criticism for not being able to generate jobs, especially after the pandemic-triggered economic slump

Counterclaim:

The Indian job market has seen a fall in unemployment; even at the height of Covid-19 triggered pandemic, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data, the unemployment rate eased to 4.2 percent in 2020-21 from 4.8 per cent in 2019-20. As for 2022, the job scenario in the Indian market, projected by some agencies, is not as precarious as it has been shown. As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the labour force in India increased by 8.8 million from 428.4 million in March 2022 to 437.2 million in April 2022.

Besides, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation data suggests significant acceleration in formalization of the job market during 2021. In November, 2021, the monthly net additional EPF subscription peaked with 13.95 lakh new subscribers, the highest in any given month since 2017. This translates into growth of 109.21 per cent in EPF subscription from November, 2020. The Economic Survey further states that the monthly net addition in EPF subscriptions during 2021 has not only been higher than the corresponding monthly values in 2020 but they have also surpassed the levels of the corresponding months during pre-pandemic year 2019.

Similarly in 2022, several sectors witnessed robust hiring activities. According to the Monster Employment Index, hiring demand saw a 6 percent year-on-year growth in March 2022. After rising steadily from April 2021 to September 2021, the index has gone up and down between October 2021 and March 2022, hitting a peak of 290 in February 2022. While the March 2022 index saw a month-on-month decline of 6 per cent to 283 – Monster attributes it to employees sticking around in their current jobs due to the appraisal season – it has risen a moderate 6 per cent from 266 in March 2021, just before the second wave of Covid-19 hit. Recruitment activity continued across a broad range of sectors, but tech, finance and HR roles continue to be in high demand and drove the hiring demand in March 2022, the findings showed.

Banking/Financial Services and Insurance showed remarkable improvement (up 37 per cent), followed by Telecom/ISP (up 17 per cent) and Production and Manufacturing (up 16 per cent). Additionally, jobs rebounded for Hospitality & Travel (up 11%) personnel after a long time and experienced significantly improved demand levels annually.

Then giving a push to employment in government jobs, an announcement has been made to recruit 10 lakh people within the next 18 months on a mission mode.

Claim:

The World Bank cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 to 7.5% from the earlier estimate of 8%, citing the impact of high inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

Counterclaim:

It is true that the World Bank cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 to 7.5 percent from the earlier estimate of 8 percent, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that India has also witnessed the sharpest rise among the Asian economies, with a six-position jump from 43rd to 37th rank on the annual World Competitiveness Index largely due to gains in economic performance. The US Treasury too praised India for rebound in economy despite three significant Covid-19 waves. It said that India’s acute second wave weighed heavily on growth through the middle of 2021, “however, economic activity rebounded strongly in the second half of the year as India’s vaccination rollout accelerated.”